The United States and its partners have long struggled to understand North Korea, where a cruel system of fear, repression and paranoia keeps the country largely impenetrable to outsiders. They will have to work harder than ever to pierce the curtain — and manage stability on the Korean Peninsula — after the abrupt death of Kim Jong-il, the North Korean dictator, and the ascension of his youngest son, Kim Jong-un.
The elder Mr. Kim began planning for succession after suffering a stroke in 2008, but he seemed to have improved after that. Even China, North Korea’s main patron, expressed “shock” at his passing. The death on Saturday was officially attributed to a heart attack and announced some 48 hours after it occurred.
Any transition in North Korea, which has the unnerving combination of a growing nuclear weapons arsenal and an erratic leadership, would be difficult. But little is known about the son, who is believed to be in his late 20s and was only tapped officially to take over for his father in September 2010. At that time, he was named a four-star general, although he lacked military experience.
On Monday, the official news agency, the Korean Central News Agency, reported that soldiers and citizens were swearing allegiance to Kim Jong-un. This was hardly a surprise, and we have no idea if it’s true. It will take longer to know if the generals are fully behind him. Given North Korea’s penchant for belligerence, there are also legitimate concerns that the son could do something provocative — another nuclear test or an attack on South Korea — to prove his military bona fides internally or show the outside world that North Korea remains a militarized state and a force to be reckoned with. That would be extremely dangerous.
The 17-year rule of Kim Jong-il, in which the leaders enjoyed cognac and other luxuries and wasted resources on nuclear weapons while the rest of the population faced starvation and repression, was a disgrace. This transition is a perilous moment that calls for close and thoughtful coordination among the United States and crucial allies.
President Obama moved quickly to consult South Korea’s president, Lee Myung-bak, in a telephone call late Sunday and on Monday. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton met in Washington with the foreign minister of Japan, Koichiro Gemba. Similar efforts will be needed with China, which worries most about a flood of refugees if North Korea collapses and has the most clout of any country to warn the North against acting irresponsibly.
Mr. Obama was right to reaffirm America’s commitment to stability on the Korean Peninsula and to South Korea’s security. But he also needs to make clear that his administration remains open to engaging North Korea. After several years of detachment, the two sides recently have discussed a long overdue American offer of food assistance (proper monitoring of deliveries is a must) and the North’s return to nuclear talks. We have no idea whether this is possible, but Kim Jong-il’s death does provide his successor with an opportunity to change course. The United States and its allies can signal clearly that they are willing to talk — even while continuing to implement strict sanctions.
new styles, mens style, clothing brands, designer clothes, designer clothing,
No comments:
Post a Comment